Everyone on earth is talking about Donald Trump. So, he got his wish. The entire world is talking about him.
For many of us in the rest of the world, it’s just bad look. It almost feels like Trump’s US opponents have given up. Not only did the Democrats lose, they lost across the board. We’ve also seen tech leaders supporting Trump, Facebook appeasing him, US media organisations caving into his lawsuits and everyone from Walmart to McDonald’s scrapping diversity programs. Commentators have described it as “changes in the vibe”, or “the great vibe shift” with America primed to turn decisively to the right. The response to all this from the left has been weak. Democrats describe themselves as exhausted and demoralised and it’s a big contrast to the resistance that followed Trump’s first victory in 2016. The feeling on the left seems to be that Trump’s power, his agenda, his politics, is overwhelming and that this is the new reality.
But this may be overestimating his power and chances of success.
Why? Because politics in western democracies is subject to constant change. Although there are moments when a person or a party’s power feels overwhelming, it never lasts. Right now, Trump feels invincible, but this will change. In 1964 President Johnson won a landslide victory. Four years later, he didn’t even seek re-election because things had gotten so bad, especially in the Vietnam War. In 1972 Richard Nixon won a landslide. Two years later, he had resigned in disgrace. Jimmy Carter and George Bush Snr are among several other presidents suddenly losing support. One factor that accelerates this process is when a president says or implies he will do more than he can. Some of Trump’s great claims like ending the Ukraine war in a day even before taking his seat in the White House or conquering Canada or buying Greenland. Very impressive hairy-chested stuff that plays well on Fox News, but most people see through it.
We could expect to see public opinion desert Trump’s agenda, even if the public has just voted for that agenda. This phenomenon is called “Thermostat Politics”. It describes the way public preferences naturally shift in the opposite direction of government action. When left of centre President Barack Obama was in power, public opinion moved in a conservative direction and when conservative Trump won in 2016, public opinion went leftwards. So it’s reasonable to expect support for Trump and his politics to decline. In fact, people forget how Trump’s approval ratings tanked in his first term. Even dictators, who don’t have to worry about voting, lose their power. In Syria, Iraq, Romania, Libya, Cambodia and so on.
In his first term, Trump had many more limits on his power in Congress, the Republican Party and in the people he appointed to his cabinet. He faced opposition, which is much less the case now. It’s much harder for Trump and his supporters to blame others when things go wrong. Central to this is “Incumbency Fatigue”, where the governing power is worn down by the political controversies, policy failures and scandals that are part of the rough and tumble of being in power. There have already been a few klangers and it’s reasonable to assume there’s going to be plenty more. However, the argument against this is that Trump and his movement will lie and blame the media – and his devotees will believe it. But propaganda has limits, and populists like Trump often struggle with voters once they have a record that they must defend. Remember that Trump couldn’t win re-election in 2020 and he put the blame on anybody other than himself.
But in the 2024 election, Trump won all seven swing states as well as the popular vote and it was a more emphatic win than many were predicting. But it’s worth remembering, it wasn’t a landslide in terms of presidential election history and the margin of Trump’s popular vote victory was smaller than Joe Biden’s and Hillary Clinton’s. Indeed it was smaller than either of Barack Obama’s victories. Also, his majority in the House is narrow and his senate majority can’t survive the filibuster.
But how does Trump see it? “My life was saved for a reason. I was saved by God to make America great again”. I will leave it to the psychologists and psychiatrists to identify the relevant disorder operating there.
Trump and his movement are going to overreach. A mixture of overconfidence and an apparently genuine belief in divine mission are going to make them go too far and alienate voters. Already, we’ve had pardons for the January 6 rioters, tariffs that are likely to drive up prices for American consumers, a chaotic freeze on federal grants and loans that then had to be reversed days later. And Elon Musk doing a Nazi salute. Maga extremists, of course, will love all this, but not every Trump voter is a Maga extremist. Trump, like all politicians, has a coalition of support made up of core voters and more moderate, less ideological, swing voters,and much of this will go down badly with this less extreme group of voters. What will make this overreach even worse is that Trump cannot run again in four years’ time. Though he might try. But that means for the next four years the others in the Maga movement will be maneuvering to be Trump’s successor. These are perfect conditions for a “Purity Spiral” where members of a political movement compete for leadership by becoming even more extreme. This will all be made worse by the echo chamber of conservative media that will push Maga ever further away from the concerns of ordinary voters. So expect to see overreach and ordinary voters turned off as a result.
Then comes the vexed question of succession. Trump’s successor will not have his charisma. Trump-styled power is made up of raw coercive force and legitimacy (Legitimacy in this context refers to the belief others have that your authority is right and justified). Popularist, charismatic leaders often share a similar story: the main character rises against an implacable establishment determined to hold him back. He becomes the great leader. And to do this, he taps different sources of legitimacy, from religious to traditional to ideological, all of which increases his supporters’ belief in him. One of the key types of legitimacy he uses is charisma, what socialist Max Weber described as, “The absolute personal devotion and personal confidence in revelation, heroism or other qualities of individual leadership”. Trump has this. It’s a weird mix of celebrity, personality and cruelty that fascinates and attracts attention and loyalty in a way that is extraordinary. But it is extraordinary. None of the Maga Lieutenants have this. And when Trumpian candidates have tried to run on extreme Maga ideas, but without his charisma, they have failed. And so while a lot depends on what Democrats do next time, it is reasonable to predict that if any of the current gang of Trump wannabes plan to inherit the throne, they will move to the centre. This raises the distinct possibility that Trump’s politics without Trump’s charisma is not a winning formula.
Another key reason why the Trump phenomenon will run out of hot air is their policies won’t work. Trump says he wants America to be strong and respected abroad, but much of his foreign policy like freezing all American aid is likely to strengthen China and America’s other adversaries. His inexplicable attack on Canada has driven the mild-mannered Canadians into the waiting embrace of China, with a proposal under consideration to stop exporting crude oil to the US and sell it to China instead. More broadly, tariffs are likely to increase prices and hurt American consumers and growth in the United States – a point which is lost on many.
Possibly the most self-defeating way Trump’s prospects are short-term is breaking the rule of law, the principle that you have to follow the rules regardless of who you are. Some of Trump’s actions, like the pardons of insurrectionists who stormed the Capitol building were clearly part of Trump’s presidential powers, but many of his other actions are not: freezing funds that Congress has authorised, firing Inspectors-General without notice, shutting down USAID – these are on a long and growing list of illegal actions that even some conservatives have criticised. On the other side of the aisle, Democrat star Bernie Sanders told congress recently that the Trump administration is moving aggressively towards what he called a “Kleptocracy” (as in Kleptomaniac or compulsive thief). He was describing a new status quo when a handful of billionaires like Elon Musk have access to the controls of government and carte blanche to use them to their own advantage without restraint and without supervision. The Robin Hood of the Democrats warned this will only hurt those who voted for Trump along with many other Americans struggling in the cost-of-living crisis, while making the absurdly rich even absurdly richer. This erodes what made America strong in the first place and its businesses successful. In America, you must follow the rules. Businesses and property can’t just be stolen and presidents can’t do whatever they like. Most of us in the West want America to be strong. But breaking the rule of law makes America weaker.
These points might be small comfort to those affected negatively by Trump’s actions. But at a time when many feel overwhelmed and hopeless in the face of Trump’s onslaught, hopefully we may see signs that the Democrats are starting to regain their mojo and that resistance to Trump is growing.
Whatever happens, it’s worth remembering that while Trump’s position may feel insurmountable now, power fades, opposition builds and reality bites.
Ultimately, Trump will fail.
